The Race To The Center

One of the most fascinating rituals of presidential election politics is what I like to refer to as "The Race To The Center."  This race has two legs – starting in the center, the candidates first sprint far enough to their party’s political extreme to get the nomination, then promptly try to get back to the center ahead of their opponent in order to win the race (ie, the election).  Let me explain.

The American electorate of course covers the political spectrum, from extreme liberal to extreme conservative.  No one would seriously disagree that the extreme left is the Democratic base and the extreme right is the Republican base.  While the reality is that this spectrum is a messy bell curve with moderates occupying the largest, central sector, it is simpler to think of this spectrum as linear. 

That means, obviously, that to get the nomination, each candidate has to appeal to the most extreme parts of his/her party - its base.  However, to get elected, the candidate then has to turn around and appeal to the center, because their base is not large enough to win.  Hence, The Race To The Center. 

Like all races, winning depends on a number of factors.  The first, and arguably the most important, is how far they have to run. If they started the campaign running far to the extreme, they have farther to run to get back to the center. How long that initial leg is depends on the willingness of the base to shorten it by moving to the center (or, more accurately, not making him/her run all the way to the extreme) to meet the candidate.

The next most important factor is the speed (ability) of the runner/candidate. Rhetorically, a good runner can cover more ground than a slow one.  The corollary to that is the speed/ability of the opponent.  The winner doesn't have to be fast, he just needs to be faster than the loser.

The third factor is the intangible of luck. Again, the winner doesn't have to be very good if the opponent stumbles, or if the opponent's race course is strewn with obstacles. 

Finally, and most cynically, this is a race of perception, with tens of millions of judges/voters.  It doesn't really matter what the runner actually believes.  All that matters is what the judges think about the candidates.

Now that the nominations are secured, the candidates have completed the first leg of the race.  It is frankly entertaining to watch them now run back to the center and try to convince moderates and independents that they aren’t really the extremists they pretended to be on the nomination leg of the race.  In the end, do we really know what they actually believe?  Probably not.